People Compare the Wrong Probabilities

I am back to home, sweet home! I am very relieved that I am back safely. For some reason, more and more I begin to scare of flying. I understand that there is a small chance to have an accident. However, Why should I take even a small chance if it’s not absolutely necessary? If an accident happens during a flight, even with a small chance, I will be in deep shit. Reports keep comparing the probabilities of car accidents and airplane accidents. They conclude that people should not worry about flying because air travel has a much smaller probability to have an accident compared to traveling in cars. That’s wrong. Not the statistics, but what they are comparing when talking about safety. They should compare "probability of survival," not the "probability of having an accident." Anyone who takes math courses should agree with me that: Pr (having an accident and survive) = Pr (survival | having an accident) * Pr (having an accident) Now given the condition of having an accident, the conditional probability of survival makes the probability of survival during a flight looks really bad, compared to traveling in cars. That proves that I am not totally a fool when I worry about flying. I think it’s worth a celebration after my returning from Iowa. Yes, Iowa, the field of dreams. On Tuesday, in order to catch my flight to the SFO airport, I set up two alarms to 4:30am, hoping that I would give myself plenty time to have a little breakfast and wash up before my shuttle comes around 5:30am. However, when I was woken up by a phone call on my cell phone, I heard an automatic voice from Supershuttle: "Your van will be arriving in 3 minutes!" It was 5:30am already! Oh my mother Teresa! I hate mornings. Two days ago when I was at Iowa State University, when I was requesting a wakeup call at 8am, the girl at the front desk giggled—she had no idea that 8am is my 6am! Although the weather was super pleasant and the campus was incredible beautiful at Iowa State University (ISU), the trip is little bit dreadful. Everywhere is quiet and empty, because few are attending the summer school. http://picasaweb.google.com/s/c/bin/slideshow.swf The familiar sceneries bring back lot memories, but I don’t feel nostalgic. I didn’t want to stay there any longer and I was extremely happy that I could leave. My old apartment that I used to live, University Village, still stands there and still looks the same. I bet my room is still very small. Paths on campus that I used to travel daily still surrounded by beautiful landscaping and nicely mowed green lawn. I don’t know when I will visit ISU again. Perhaps never. I don’t wanna fly unnecessarily, but mostly, I closed that chapter of my life, for good. Now I am back home and I can eat, exercise, and sleep regularly. There is a Japanese place called Nara Sushi in my neighborhood that I have wanted to go for a while. Finally, I paid a visit last night. It’s not bad at all. The presentation is not fancy or over the top, but the fish is fresh and delicious. I am surprised to find out that they have ama-ebi. They are delicious! Next time I go there, I will order a screaming orgasm. I will go back to Marin Headlands tomorrow, so I must go to bed now. G’night.